Modeling Urban Morphogenesis at a Macro-Scale Based on Cellular Automata: The Case of the Casbah of Algiers

Urban morphogenesis refers to the dynamic process creating urban form. This study develops a cellular automata model (CA) of the Casbah of Algiers, a historic Islamic urban fabric. The model integrates topographic data, elevation, slope, and street network, and combines two predictive approaches: artificial neural networks (ANN) and logistic regression (LR). Calibrated with historical land use data, it estimates spatial transition potentials and simulates the city's evolution over time. The results demonstrate the ability of cellular automata to reproduce the complex structure of traditional Islamic cities determined by morphological constraints. Based on complexity theories, the research clarifies the decision-making systems and underlying logic behind irregular and ambiguous urban forms such as the Casbah. However, the model is limited by the availability and resolution of historical spatial data, and it does not incorporate detailed micro-scale spatial dynamics that influence urban transformations. Future research can explore multi-scalar interactions, integrate socioeconomic, cultural, and religious dimensions, and apply the methodology to other traditional urban fabrics for comparative analysis. This work contributes to a better understanding of traditional Islamic cities and proposes a flexible modeling framework to enrich current approaches.